Nigel Farage's Reform UK has fallen to third in the polls. Three of four times a British opposition party fell in the polls, its leader was still in the job 61 days later, and once the leader left after 14 days.
History3 of 4Hunch79%
Three of four times in recent midterm years that the other party's main national group spent at least $1 million in the last week against a member from the president's party, the member kept the seat, and once the member lost.
History3 of 4Hunch80%
In all five Maine elections since 1974 where the governor could not run again after two terms in a row, the governor's party lost the job: three times to the other main party, twice to an independent candidate.
History5 of 5Hunch44%
Republicans have not won a statewide vote in Minnesota since 2006. In all five midterm races since 2010 where a party out of the presidency defended an open Senate seat against rivals with no statewide win for eight years, it kept the seat.
History5 of 5Hunch94%
Four of four times a US senator ran again in a state where the other party had not won a Senate race for over 40 years, the senator got the most votes, and each won more than half.
History4 of 4Hunch89%
The government has proposed a 2.4% rise for next year. Six of seven times a health union in England set winter strike dates after long talks, the strike began on the first day, and once nurses called it off.
History86%Hunch74%
Pope Leo goes to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru from 6 to 17 November, weeks after lung surgery. Nine of nine times a pope over 70 went on a long trip to three or more countries, he reached every one on the plan.
History100%Hunch86%
The government is doubling the money to £874m. One of seven times a government or mayor in Britain or Ireland promised to end rough sleeping by a date, it said the goal was met on time, and six times it was missed.
History14%Hunch18%
Ana Brnabić has until 27 November to set the date. Four of six times a country had to elect a head of state early, the first round came within 90 days, and twice it came far later.
History67%Hunch64%
All nine times a party ran a candidate known for remarks against minorities, its lead fell. Three of nine lost.
History100%Hunch97%
Five of nine times a party that had just moved into second place stayed ahead in the next poll, and four times it fell back.
History56%Hunch62%
All five British stars who first won their sport's top prize while still competing were not knighted in the next honours list.
History5 of 5Hunch96%
Five of six new coaches whose club tied their future to one game were gone within five weeks, the sixth after 37 days.
History83%Hunch74%
Seven of nine new bosses of big US companies saw the shares go down after their first results. Twice the shares went up.
History78%Hunch69%
All five times a run of small cuts came with a warning about a weaker real, Brazil's central bank cut again at the next meeting.
History5 of 5Hunch35%
Eight times a Czech board member backed a rate rise before a meeting, the vote was split, and the rate went up three of those times.
History0%Hunch18%
In six of seven Budget months since 2022, company insolvencies did not rise more than 8% on the month before. Once they rose 38%.
History86%Hunch78%
Seven of eight times, an English council elected the leader its ruling group named, and once that person pulled out first.
History88%Hunch83%